Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Who Gains from the Demise of the Russian Spy Ring?

Many News sources and blogs are speculating as to timing of the FBI's decision -less than one week after the "warm" visit to America, by Russian President Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev- to take down the Russian "scouting for talent” spy ring.

The New York Post quoted a FBI spokesman who explained that there are many classified reasons for the timing of the FBI's action. One unclassified reason was that "one of the 10 spies was about to leave the US". Another explanation prominent in left-wing American media and state-run Russian media is that it was American officials attempting to embarrass Obama and at the same time counter his call for a "reset" with Russia.

Are these explanations sufficient?

The first reason, offered by the FBI spokesperson, is full of holes. The FBI was following this spy ring for 10 years, do you expect us to believe that this is the first time that these well-camouflaged fake-Americans decided to leave the country. Furthermore, the intermediary between the ring and Russia’s spy agency, the SVR, was arrested in Cyprus, after their officials were notified of his presence. In other words, the fact that one of the spies was planning on leaving the US could not have been even a secondary reason -he/she could have been arrested anywhere. That is unless they were tipped off and planned to run to Russia, the one place where they would, presumably, be safe. But who would tip the spies off? A double agent in the FBI? If that is the case it could explain why the FBI waited 10 years to roll up the spy-ring. Namely the FBI suspected that there was a mole and waited patiently for him/her to expose themselves. When the mole informed the Russian spy that the FBI was on to them, the spy ran, was caught, and is probably being interrogated right now, about who his FBI friend is. Assuming all this arbitrary speculation has some truth to it, it still does not answer the question. Why did the mole inform the spy to run NOW?

Which leads us to the "embarrass Obama" explanation.

Why didn't these "officials" attempt to embarrass Obama when he was signing the nuclear arms reduction treaty (START), back in April?

Which leaves us with the possibility of another potential player, the former KGB spy and current prime minister, Vladimir Putin. Putin is being left out of the rampant media speculation and is basically being ignored.

Could it be that Putin, who many perceive to be the real leader of Russia, resents his protégé Medvedev's increasing power and his diminishing relevance?

Indeed in April during the START signing, “American officials” could really have embarrassed Obama. Putin was ubiquitous (and embarrassing Obama would not serve his purpose), but since then he seems to have disappeared. Was he mentioned during Medvedev's visit to the G-20, or during his visit to America? No and no, in both cases and more Putin has been inconspicuously absent.

Yet like sex-loving Bill , Putin continues to try to make himself relevant, for example, with his recent but irrelevant visit to Turkey, to meet with the Ahmadinejad and Erdogan. To no avail, Putin’s power is slipping and he knows it. Obama and Medvedev want to continue Russia's democratization, and Putin, well we don't really know.

So Putin goes ahead and flexes his political muscles, and reminds Medvedev, Obama, and the free world that he is still in a position of power, at least as a spoiler. Putin knew that the spy ring was compromised, (in fact America/Russian reciprocal spying has accelerated since the end of the cold war, and is blatant but tolerated) pulled some strings in Russia, or even here in America, and low and behold America and Russia are reminded that their relationship is more like Putin-Bush struggling over missile defense then it is Obama-Medvedev devouring cheeseburgers. Don't be surprised if you see the anti-American sentiment in Russia coalesce around Putin, i.e. making Putin relevant.

Am I sure? Of course not! But at the same time why should we accept that it is anti-Obama elements in AMERICA attempting to embarrass him or that other “was going to leave the US” hogwash?

It is more likely that Putin is the one that orchestrated this event. After all who is to gain from the demise of the Russian spy ring?








Putin of course.

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