Is the Flotilla Fiasco Connected to the PKK Attacks on Turkey?

Turkey and the “outlawed” Turkish Workers Party (PKK) have been in a period of unofficial detente –no major attacks for some time. Until PKK militants, attacked a Turkish navy vessel in Iskenderun on the very same day as the flotilla fiasco. This particular Turkish naval vessel also happened to be closest, proximity-wise, to the very same flotilla.

Since then there have been a number of serious attacks targeting Turkish soldiers. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAC, allegedly a front group for the PKK), took responsibility for the latest, a remote controlled bomb that resulted in the deaths of four Turkish soldiers and one civilian.

Was it a coincidence?

In Turkey, it seems, most have already concluded that the May 31st attack was not a coincidence (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=did-israel-orchestrate-terror-attack-in-iskenderun-2010-06-03). On June 1st, one day after the flotilla fiasco and the first PKK salvo against Turkey, one of the PKK’s leaders, Abdul Ocalan, said in a statement from prison that his calls for dialogue with Turkey had been ignored and that he was giving his consent to the PKK in northern Iraq to determine which course of action to take (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/06/201062034424526682.html). Even this is interpreted as part of an Israel/USA move against Turkey.



I agree but not for the same reasons.

The predominant Turkish perspective (I have spoken to some Turkish acquaintances, besides the usual press) is that Israel’s Mossad and even the United States' CIA, are behind these attacks, were effectively using the PKK as a weapon to punish Turkey for its support of anti-Western forces in the Middle-East. Some point to decades old allegations, that Israel supported the PKK, as "evidence". Then again America once supported the Taliban. Where is the hard evidence?

Maybe it was Iran which feels that its anti-Israel rhetoric, that helped portray themselves as the “savior” of the Middle-East, has been overshadowed by Erdogan’s antics? Indeed, Iran has its own Kurdish problem, so it makes sense for them to direct Kurdish anger at their Muslim competitor in the region. Maybe, but where is the evidence?

On the other hand, there is evidence for the contrary: In the past, Israel provided Turkey with vital political assistance, by lobbying the Americans on Armenian issues and arms sales that were hampered by Greece(http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jun/8/jewish-community-ends-support-turkey-capitol-hill/print/). Israel also provided essential intelligence and helped modernize Turkeys military- a modernization that ironically continues today. Some sources even claim that it was Israel that helped Turkey capture imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan (http://www.sptimes.com/2003/02/20/Worldandnation/Turkey_and_Israel_thr.shtml).

Then, in 2002 following the AKP’s assent to power, Israel’s relationship with Turkey plummeted, to the extent that some blame Israel’s lack of preparation for violence by the flotilla activists on the false Israeli presumption that they still had intelligence partners in Ankara (http://www.debka.com/article/8824/). Israel's “partners” either didn’t pass on the information, or were kept out of the loop by a military-wary Erdogan (please see post http://factoru.blogspot.com/2010/05/erdogan-and-turkey-are-israels-right.html).

The collapse of Israel/Turkey relationship has no doubt severely hampered intelligence sharing. This is a given considering Turkeys burgeoning relationships with Israel’s enemies in the region -Iran, Syria, HAMAS, and Hezbollah.

Without Israeli intelligence, Turkey’s intelligence apparatus is simply incapable of battling the PKK, as is evident from the fact that Turkey seems to be responding to threats, not preventing them. But it doesn’t stop there. Turkey's no vote on Iran sanctions in the UNSC, angered and embarrassed Washington which was looking to at least match the “inept Bush administrations record” which actually passed three rounds of sanctions against Iran, two of them unanimously (please see post http://factoru.blogspot.com/2010/06/what-do-latest-unsc-sanctions-on-iran.html). This could not have strengthened Americas willingness to use its comprehensive intelligence resources in Iraq to tip off Turkey about the impending cross border PKK attack that killed 12 Turkish soldiers.

Indeed if there is a time that Turkey is vulnerable it is now. Turkey wasn't bulletproof when it had Israel/American support, but without that support the suppressed vulnerability became a glaring opportunity. The PKK leader did not overlook this, and the results are stark.

So was the flotilla fiasco connected to the rash of attacks on Turkeys military? Absolutely. Not because of Israeli or American engagement with the PKK, but because of their disengagement with Turkey.