Wednesday, June 9, 2010

What do the Latest UNSC Sanctions on Iran Mean?

After months of negotiations between the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) -America, Britain, France, Russia, and China- a watered down (for lack of a better term) resolution, sanctioning Iran, was passed.

The bottom line is that the UNSC failed to pass sanctions with teeth. By teeth I mean making it illegal to export refined gas/oil products to a country that, surprisingly considering all its oil reserves, imports 50% of their refined oil/gas.

So we must ask what does this fourth round of sanctions actually mean?


First, the very fact that Russia and China -who both have strong economic ties with Iran- signed on to this resolution reveals three points. 1. The Western powers, led by America, had to make serious concessions. Concessions, that no doubt affect missile defense in Eastern Europe, and Americas actions vis-a-vis Taiwan/North Korea in the East. 2. For once Ahmadinejad was telling the partial (I will explain partial in a moment) truth when he said the sanctions are "valueless" and should be thrown "in the waste bin like a used handkerchief". Otherwise China/Russia would not have signed on. 3. The Obama administration needed this diplomatic "victory", a need that Russia and China surely exploited, further explaining the worthless provisions.

Second, the Russia's decision to sign on to the resolution was most probably agreed upon between Putin and Ahmadinejad, when they recently met in Turkey. Thus when the Russia's Foreign Ministry announced that the measures in the resolution "exclude the possibility of employing force", he meant that this resolution was only worthless to those opposed to Iran's nuclear ambitions (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_nuclear_iran). In essence, this resolution is an umbrella protecting Iran from an attack by Israel. After all "Iran was sanctioned, what more can you, Israelis, possibly want"!?

Third, America, under the Obama administration, will not only not use military force to stop Iran, but it will also do all it can -as Nixon/Kissinger did leading up to the Yom Kippur war of 1973- to prevent Israel from doing what it feels it must. Including agreeing to meaningless sanctions to show that America is doing all it can, and that Israel should further delay any strike. This is not a critique of America, but rather a frank conclusion that the Obama administration agreed to this resolution in a misguided attempt to assuage China, Russia and Israel.

Put otherwise it is true that America does not have the ability now to open up a third front in Iran, at the same time America can work with its real allies, the Western powers, and sanction the export of gas to Iran. After all America and the EU, are the number one and number two consumer blocks, they have pull.

From this perspective, this resolution is part of a trend not an exception. Obama's is attempting to befriend Russia and China, and continues to place Americas real allies/friends second. Poland and the aborted missile defense- Russia. South Korea/Japan, and no action on North Korea - China. Now sacrificing Israels interests.
Why? For the sake of the pipe dream that America can be both a leader and a friend of Russia and China.

What do the latest UNSC sanctions mean? They mean a lot.

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