Understanding Syria

Once a mainstay of the pan-Arab consensus, Syria’s relationship with its neighbors has taken an expected turn. Over the past 5 years Syria has become the only major Arab ally of Iran; despite the fact that Iran aims for hegemonic dominance of the Middle East. At the same time, Syria has moved closer to another non-Arab power in the region, Turkey. As evidenced by recent joint military drills.

One way to understand Syria’s present and future behavior is reflecting on its recent history.

In 1948, 1967, 1973, and 1981 Syria joined other Arab nations in their war on Israel, and failed. It watched as Egypt and then Jordan made peace with Israel, but refused to do the same. Ostensibly because Israel held the Golan Heights, ignoring the fact that Israel has shown its willingness to return captured land for peace. This split was publicly affirmed when Israel destroyed Iran’s nuclear reactor in Syria territory. No Arab nation came to their aid; on the contrary the Arab world silently applauded the implicit Iranian defeat. Syria seeing the lack of Arab support moved even closer to its non-Arab neighbors.

It is important to note that the Arab world has a historically ambivalent, if not hostile relationship with Iran. Iran is a Shia theocracy historically rooted in rejection of Arab Sunnism. At the same time Turkey is viewed through the eyes of an Arab world subjected to Ottoman imperialism, albeit Muslim, for over 400 years.

Yet Syria has seen its relationship with its Arab brothers as failed and even counterproductive. Failed because pan-Arabism has failed - most of the Arab world agrees. Counterproductive because Syria correctly understands that’s its alignment with the Arabs requires them to subject their national aims to larger Arab-league sentiment. The thrust of that sentiment is formed by a teetering Secular Egypt and the Gulf States love affair with elitist capitalism -the Arabs current position is stability first.

The way Syria sees it, whereas the Arab world, failed in its war against Israel, and was quiet while it was attacked, Iran and Turkey will not abandon them and will serve as an even bigger stopgap then the former Soviet Union –as Syria will be placed under the Iranian nuclear umbrella. Syria’s behavior as the regions lapdog is historically consistent. It was Egypt’s minority partner for 30 years. Egypt no longer maintains that position, and the Russians are not nearly as supportive as the failed Soviets; Syria has reason to move on.

The implications of this shift are made relevant only by the effort to isolate a belligerent and increasingly dangerous Iran. Obama’s overtures, like his decision to return an American ambassador to Syria, as well as failed Western efforts to foster Syria’s reintegration with the Arab consensus, reflect that. Syria has watched the war-fatigued west and is positioning them to be the preferred ally of what they perceive to be the future rulers of the Middle East. The interesting point here is that instead of learning lessons from the past as the Arabs have, they are predictably repeating them. Did they finally make the right bet? Only time will tell.