Israel attempt to bolster its relationship with Turkey with a February transfer of Herons (one of the most advanced Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems) to Turkey, had failed. This is due in no small part to Turkeys rhetoric prone Prime Minister Recap Erdogan, who is fixated on destroying the Israeli-Turkish relations.
The Israeli-Turkish relationship has always been emotionless, uncaring, and uneasy. At the same time there has been undeniable strategic partnership since Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel, in 1949. The relationship has paid off. Turkey has gained entrance into NATO, and has the 5th largest, and very well equipped, military on earth.
However this April’s revelation that Israel rejected Turkeys request for the Barack 8, a 360 degree naval defense shield, is a tangible indicator that Erdogans rhetoric driven campaign against Israel is succeeding. Israel, and its research partner India, fear Turkey will transfer advanced technologies to belligerent nations like Pakistan and Iran. The fact that Turkey is moving away from its historical relationship with Israel was affirmed when they pulled out of a NATO exercise due to the participation of the Israeli Air Force (AIF). If Turkey had not then staged military exercises with its neighbor Syria, and openly declared that it will not stand by if Israel launches an attack on Syria or Iran, the former move could have seen as simply a protest of the Gaza war of 2008.
The bottom line is that Erdogan has been rather aggressive and successful in his attempt to separate Turley and Israel. But why?
Unless Erdogan is looking for war, Erdogans effort to elevate Turkey to the regional power will have include the collaboration of Israel. Clearly Erdogan is not furthering that goal, at least not through peaceful means. Likewise, the view that Erdogans need to bash Israel to gain the trust of the Arab world is untenable. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan all work closely with Israel and would certainly accept Turkey into their alliance against Iran.
Instead Erdogan has aligned Turkey with the minority alliance in the region Syria-Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah. This too is confusing considering that Iran is aiming for regional hegemony, by pursuing nuclear weapons, weapons that would essentially obviate Turkey’s powerful, but un-nuclear military. Is Turkey submitting to Iran!
From a regional perspective it is difficult to defend Erdogans policies towards Israel. Then again that may be the key to understanding Erdogan – his aims are domestic not regional.
Over the last two years Turkey has seen two alleged coup attempts by the military, or so the AK, Erdogans Islamist-leaning party, would have you believe. The first in 2008 ostensibly was executed by the ultranationalist gang, "Ergenekon,” That aborted coup resulted in 400 arrests and zero known convictions ( Interestingly, the left/liberal-leaning new paper, Taraf, broke the story (http://www.csmonitor.com) and later alleged that the Israeli foreign intelligence unit, Mossad, was behind the attempt. The evidence rings of blood-libel proportions –a sack with an Israeli flag and Mossad memorabilia (?!) was found in a conspirators home. The left/Islamic relationship in secular countries is an established phenomenon; suffice to say it requires a separate analysis).
The second coup occurred in 2010 and included the arrest of 7 high ranking military officers, including the three former heads of the navy, air force, and Special Forces, along with 50 others.
For those that are unfamiliar with the modern Turkish system, this is part of the Turkish political process. The Turkish secular revivalist, and founder of the Modern Turkish state, Mustafa Kemal Pasha Ataturk, established a system whereas the military in Turkey is empowered to ensure the secular nature of Turkey –a check on the government if you will. Since 1945 there have been 3 major coups conducted by the military in 1961, 1970, 1980.
Some explain Erdogans attack as an attempt to subdue the military which impedes Turkey’s aspirations in the international community -and has often been pointed to as a major barrier to Turkey’s acceptance into the EU. At the same time Erdogan has repudiated Turkeys desire to join the EU, and his recent alliances with Syria and Iran do nothing to further Turkey’s acceptance into the EU.
What is infinitely clear is that whether the military coups were fabricated or real, the military and Erdogan perceive each other as a threat.
Were it not for this week’s resignation of Turkey’s long standing leader of the secular Republicans People Party, Deniz Baykal, over an alleged sex scandal, the above discussion would do little more than affirm the belief that Turkey is in the midst of a struggle over its nature Ataturk/secular/military or religious/ Muslim/Erdogan. Yet taken as a whole it seems that Erdogan is keen on taking complete power or at least minimizing all his opponents.
Placed in this light, Erdogans attack on Israel is really an attack on the two major forces of opposition in Turkey, the military and the secular parties. To be fair both of these groups are not friends of Israel, but they do have close ties with Israel and are actually supported by Israel. In other words Israel is not stupid; it did not transfer huran UAV’s because they trusted Erdogan. They did so because it would strengthen the hand of the secular/military in Turkey, who can claim “look it pays to be secular, it pays to ally with Israel”. Moreover, it indicates that Israel still believed that Turkey’s staunchly secular military would be able to reassert themselves against Erdogans political onslaught. After the latest failed coup, Israel’s decision not to provide further military hardware reflects Israel’s conclusion that the Turkish secular/military alliance has faltered (fatally ?).
Only a secular Turkey could ally itself with Israel, and Erdogan seeks to undermine his secular opponents in any way possible. By fostering anti-Israel sentiments in Turkey, Erdogan is also engendering negative attitudes towards Israel’s perceived allies within Turkey –the secular/military. Furthermore Turkey relationship with Israel is predicated on a simple trade, advanced military hardware, for political allegiance. But now that Israel refuses to give any more advanced weapons to Turkey the military in Turkey is further delegitimized. After all it was the military that pushed an alliance with Israel, but what has it done for Turkey, Israel won’t even provide weapons!
This also explains Erdogans alliance with Iran. If he is going to lose one nuclear regional power and supporter of his military he needs to trade it for another regionally and nuclear strong ally. Since Erdogan is focused on domestic hegemony, for the moment, his ire aimed at the larger barrier to that goal -Israel.
Erdogan is savvy politician and employing exceptional stratagem. The mistake of the observer was to accept it as a given that Erdogans main focus was regional, and that Israel was the ends of his strategy. In fact Israel is but one piece, one means, to Erdogan ends -national subjugation to his will.
But what are Erdogans national aims, and are the Israelis right, has Ataturk’s legacy failed Turkey?
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