Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Poland: Who’s Next?

I know I'm not the only one who had a sick feeling in their stomach when it was announced that America and the West, excluding Germany, had lost a proven friend. The Polish president and most of his cabinet fell out of the sky.
This was both an uncanny coincidence and ironic:
Coincidence 1. that it happened over Russia.
Conicidence 2. that a proven experienced pilot chose to land when he was advised not to.
Ironic:as it occurred right as Poland was commemorating the Katyn massacre.

For those unfamiliar with Polish history, the Katyn massacre occurred in 1940 after Russia and Germany signed their non-aggression, Molotov-Ribbentrop, Pact, and divided Poland. The Nazis found the mass-graves in 1943, and attempted to use it as propaganda toll to besmirch their enemies -the allies. The Soviets blamed the death of over 20,000 Polish officers and elites on the Nazis. Despite overwhelming evidence that the Soviets were behind the massacre the allies accepted the canard for the sake of their coalition. That is until a 1990-1991 investigation by the Soviets revealed Soviet responsibility.

On the very day that Poland was commemorating the intentional massacre of its leadership it was stripped, accidentally, of its current leadership. Of course the sometimes savvy Russians were quick to extend their sincere condolences.

The bottom line is, however, that the Polish plane was filled by Polish leadership that was openly leery of Russia, and had openly supported and sided with the American/Western coalition in Eastern-Europe.

However Eastern Europe especially countries associated with the former Soviet -Union has been subject to a series of coincidences:

Russia was the first to recognize the opposition takeover of Kyrgyzstan. Interestingly, this opposition is pro-Russian whereas the ousted government led by Bakiyev, was western-oriented -he signed off on a pivotal American army-base used to launch operations in Afghanistan. Not insignificant is the fact that Kyrgyzstan is the only state that hosts army-bases from both of the former cold-war adversaries.

Then how can we forget Russia's invasion of Georgia on the pretext of defending the pro-Russian provinces of South-Ossetia and Abkhazia.

There are many other coincidences that seem inextricably tied to Georgia/Kyrgyzstan/Polish. For instance the resurgence of Chechen terrorism; who’s supporting them?

All of which makes it clearer that Russia has recovered from its post-Soviet pacifist malaise and is accelerating the recapture of what it perceives to be, its sphere of influence. Albeit using a lot more tact and strategy.

While it make take 50 years until the Russians officially take responsibility for the Polish incident, rest assured the west in its effort to get along with Russia on energy, Iran, and North Korea will accept the official narrative.

What is eminently important is to know who’s next?

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