They say it started in Davos when the Turkish prime minister Recyap Erdogan stormed off the public stage after he was prevented from continuing his criticism of Israel's operation cast lead. Others argue that it was the collapse of Syrian-Israeli peace talks spearheaded by Turkey. Turkey claims,that Israel's attack on Gaza led to the collapse of Syrian-Israeli negotiations. This was compounded by what many considered to be an insult, considering that Erdogan was not informed by Israel that they were about to respond to 3 years of mortar attacks from Gaza. Furthermore, Erdogan claims he was assured by the Israeli that no attack was forthcoming. But my Turkish friends tell me it is part of a larger regional strategy begun before Erdogan Islamic-leaning Justice and Development Party (AK) came to power.
So I decided to talk to some of my more informed Turkish friends to gain some perspective.
The following is a very rough transcript of our conversations.
Me: What is going on with Turkish Israeli relations?
Friend: You mean the TV shows?
Me: Yeah. Valley of the Wolves and that other one that came out a couple of months ago, their so stereotypical and fictitious.
Friend: It's not like the government sponsored these shows.
Me: Yeah but the government would never have allowed them to be shown two years ago.
Friend:I hear you it is unnecessary.
Me: Hey don't get me wrong I'm all for complete freedom, but this reflects a deeper shift in the Turkish-Israeli relationship.
Freind: Yeah, Turkey wants to redevelop its regional dominance. It's overtures to Iran,agreement with Armenia, softening of restrictions on the border with Syria, and meetings with Lebanon are all part of the same strategy pushing Erdogan to be so critical of Israel, both formally and informally, such as Turkish TV.
Me: That I understand, but does Turkey really want to give up its strategic partnership with Israel? After all Israel is constantly providing Turkey with military hardware and assistance. Remember the 2006 PPK conflict, Israel provided key intelligence to Turkey. Now Israel is selling 10 of the most advanced UAV's in the world to Turkey.
Friend: Still, many in Turkey remember when the Mossad was providing material support for the Kurds against Turkey.
Me: That's Israel. Yet I think they tried to make up for that by sending medical and search and rescue teams to Turkey after that earthquake.
Friend: That was important, but expected. Remember Turkey has a long history of protecting its Jewish minority.
Me: No question about it. Following the Christian expulsion of Jews from Spain in 1492 and the subsequent explosion from Portugal, Turkey accepted the Jews,and has treated them relatively well, for close to 5 centuries.
Me: The bottom line is that Erdogan has taken every opportunity to bash Israel. That "admonition" to Turkish students that "they should learn from Jews how to make money", and his public statement, to President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, that he didn't believe the ICC's (international criminal court) indictment to be true because, "Muslims cant commit genocide", are not helpful to regional dialogue.
Don't get me wrong Ayalon's treatment of the Turkish ambassador, placing him on a lower couch and admonishing him publicly, was plain stupidity.
Friend: Yeah what was that about?
Me: That was an immature explosion following months of passive aggressive behavior on the part of Israel. What Israel should have done was challenge Erdogan following specific instances of, what Israel deemed, abuse. Not wait and then act impulsively.
Friend: Agreed. Why can't Turkey, Israel, and Iran just establish a non-Arab alliance?
Me: Yeah right.
Friend: I know.
Me: Does Turkey see Israel as standing in their way of a Turkish dominated Middle East? If so Iran seems to be the bigger threat to that hegemony?
Friend: I think Turkey sees Iran as the other power broker in the Middle East. Besides, Turkey just completed a very successful summit with Russia. As Turkey moves away from their bid to join the EU it makes sense that they are reorienting towards
Russia, another quasi-ally of Iran.
Me: Yet Turkey is part of NATO, how does that jive with a Turkey-Russian-Iranian pact?
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